Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP242021 211010 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.80    124.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     65.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     56.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    128.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.8  15.3  17.8  18.2  30.1  31.7  40.4  35.0  F  F  F  F  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   89.0  81.0  68.0  61.0  46.0  39.0  36.0  25.0  F  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   113.0 116.0  94.0  83.0  43.0  37.0  41.0  28.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  73.0  72.0  74.0  75.0  76.0  78.0  81.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -3.0   2.0  11.0   9.0   8.0  33.0   9.0  N  N  N  U  U  U VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       21.0%       25.6%       23.3%
 25kt / 24h       65.3%       76.8%       71.0%
 30kt / 24h       44.1%       65.6%       54.8%
 35kt / 24h       32.2%       65.6%       48.9%
 40kt / 24h       18.1%       65.0%       41.5%
 45kt / 36h       43.7%       68.5%       56.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       48.2%       24.1%
 55kt / 48h       38.2%       38.9%       38.5%
 70kt / 48h       19.4%       23.7%       21.5%
 65kt / 72h       13.7%       14.9%       14.3%