Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP242021 211011 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.90    123.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     62.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     39.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    137.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.0  16.4  27.3  34.3  31.1  47.2  42.2  44.4  F  F  N  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   65.0  68.0  67.0  61.0  42.0  37.0   6.0  22.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  74.3 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   101.0  91.0  69.0  58.0  45.0  34.0   0.0   0.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  73.0  72.0  72.0  73.0  75.0  77.0  81.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   9.0  12.0   5.0   2.0  20.0  16.0  10.0  N  U  U  N  N VU  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       12.4%       15.8%       14.1%
 25kt / 24h       37.8%       49.9%       43.9%
 30kt / 24h       20.5%       34.0%       27.3%
 35kt / 24h       17.3%       34.0%       25.6%
 40kt / 24h        4.3%       33.6%       18.9%
 45kt / 36h       18.7%       29.9%       24.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       12.2%        6.1%
 55kt / 48h        8.7%       10.9%        9.8%
 70kt / 48h        2.2%        3.3%        2.7%
 65kt / 72h        0.5%        1.9%        1.2%