Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP252021 211024 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.40    139.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     43.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.3  22.9  24.7  25.0  37.5  42.1  57.3  52.4  F  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   77.0  72.0  76.0  77.0  71.0  63.0  49.0  35.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 134.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    90.0 111.0 129.0 114.0 100.0  87.0  67.0  53.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  75.0  73.0  74.0  68.0  56.0  50.0  46.0  F  F  N  N  N  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0  15.0  22.0  16.0  23.0  21.0  11.0  -6.0  N  U VU  U VU VU  U  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.3%        3.1%        2.2%
 25kt / 24h       17.6%       32.4%       25.0%
 30kt / 24h        6.1%       14.5%       10.3%
 35kt / 24h        1.5%       12.8%        7.1%
 40kt / 24h        1.5%       12.8%        7.1%
 45kt / 36h       12.7%       29.4%       21.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        9.7%        4.9%
 55kt / 48h       22.7%       13.4%       18.0%
 70kt / 48h       15.2%        5.4%       10.3%
 65kt / 72h       35.4%        6.3%       20.9%