Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP252021 211024 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.80    139.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    140.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.1  10.2   9.6  17.8  21.8  23.9  19.8  17.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  117.0 110.0 101.0  99.0  97.0  91.0  70.0  49.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 129.3 120.1  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    83.0  88.0  90.0  99.0 140.0  99.0  61.0  53.0  N  F  F  F VF  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  65.0  64.0  61.0  53.0  52.0  54.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   1.0   5.0  10.0   8.0   9.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.1%       12.8%       10.4%
 25kt / 24h       49.3%       66.3%       57.8%
 30kt / 24h       28.6%       47.0%       37.8%
 35kt / 24h       18.4%       45.4%       31.9%
 40kt / 24h        4.5%       45.4%       24.9%
 45kt / 36h       47.6%       71.0%       59.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       48.4%       24.2%
 55kt / 48h       72.1%       57.0%       64.5%
 70kt / 48h       72.1%       45.4%       58.7%
 65kt / 72h       61.9%       65.2%       63.5%