Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP252021 211025 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.10    138.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     56.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.2  26.4  30.9  34.8  39.2  49.3  53.6  65.5  N  N  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   61.0  58.0  52.0  44.0  33.0  41.0  25.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 122.0 115.1 100.5  87.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   152.0 166.0 140.0  91.0  92.0  68.0  48.0  77.0 VF VF VF  F  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  57.0  53.0  51.0  46.0  50.0  53.0  48.0  N  U  U  U VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  13.0   8.0   9.0  19.0   3.0 -36.0-110.0 -57.0  U  U  U VU  N VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.3%        4.9%        4.6%
 25kt / 24h       26.2%       33.7%       29.9%
 30kt / 24h        9.7%       15.5%       12.6%
 35kt / 24h        3.8%       15.2%        9.5%
 40kt / 24h        2.4%       15.2%        8.8%
 45kt / 36h        9.1%       20.5%       14.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        6.1%        3.1%
 55kt / 48h        5.0%        5.7%        5.4%
 70kt / 48h        4.1%        2.4%        3.3%
 65kt / 72h        5.8%        2.8%        4.3%