Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP252021 211025 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.50    138.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     59.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     54.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.9  30.7  33.3  39.4  44.3  42.3  48.6  65.1  N  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   88.0  87.0  67.0  60.0  53.0  44.0  15.0   0.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 124.3 119.6 115.1  91.2  87.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   166.0 141.0  91.0  68.0  76.0  68.0  57.0  83.0 VF VF  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  56.0  51.0  47.0  55.0  62.0  68.0  66.0  U  U  U VU  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0  10.0  16.0  21.0  -9.0 -43.0 -86.0 -79.0  U  U  U VU  F VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.6%        3.3%        2.9%
 25kt / 24h       17.0%       23.5%       20.3%
 30kt / 24h        5.5%        9.8%        7.7%
 35kt / 24h        2.1%        8.7%        5.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%        8.6%        4.8%
 45kt / 36h        5.8%       11.6%        8.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.7%        1.4%
 55kt / 48h        5.6%        3.8%        4.7%
 70kt / 48h        3.7%        1.5%        2.6%
 65kt / 72h        5.0%        2.2%        3.6%