Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP252021 211026 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.50    138.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     69.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     43.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    138.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.5  24.1  21.2  28.4  25.8  28.6  48.1  78.9  N  N  N  N  N  N VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   85.0  76.0  65.0  64.0  52.0  22.0   3.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  86.6  77.7  48.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    97.0  75.0  85.0  68.0  55.0  53.0 109.0  72.0  F  N  F  N  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  47.0  49.0  49.0  52.0  60.0  62.0  55.0  U VU  U  U  U  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  18.0  13.0  12.0   8.0   5.0 -26.0 -33.0-134.0 VU  U  U  U  N VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       14.3%       11.9%       13.1%
 25kt / 24h       47.9%       54.4%       51.1%
 30kt / 24h       27.2%       38.1%       32.7%
 35kt / 24h       23.8%       38.1%       31.0%
 40kt / 24h        6.7%       37.2%       21.9%
 45kt / 36h       28.1%       44.5%       36.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       22.5%       11.2%
 55kt / 48h       17.6%       17.4%       17.5%
 70kt / 48h       14.4%        9.6%       12.0%
 65kt / 72h        5.0%        3.5%        4.3%