Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP252021 211026 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.10    139.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     57.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     46.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.7  25.8  23.7  21.7  20.2  24.1  37.0  74.8  U  N  N  N  N  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   45.0  38.0  36.0  39.0  39.0  34.0   4.0   0.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  93.6  76.2  58.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    75.0  57.0  55.0  40.0  68.0  82.0  74.0  81.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  49.0  51.0  52.0  52.0  59.0  56.0  50.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.0  11.0  10.0   5.0   8.0   7.0 -17.0 -43.0  U  U  U  N  U  N VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       13.6%        8.5%       11.0%
 25kt / 24h       28.6%       40.9%       34.7%
 30kt / 24h       18.7%       27.2%       23.0%
 35kt / 24h       18.3%       27.2%       22.7%
 40kt / 24h        7.1%       27.2%       17.1%
 45kt / 36h       22.8%       32.4%       27.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       14.2%        7.1%
 55kt / 48h       14.5%       17.1%       15.8%
 70kt / 48h        7.6%        6.3%        6.9%
 65kt / 72h        3.4%        2.0%        2.7%