Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP252021 211027 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.30    139.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     24.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.4  27.4  30.4  29.1  38.2  76.2  89.0  95.8  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   68.0  66.0  53.0  38.0  10.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0 100.0  92.3  66.2  48.6  27.7  -3.2  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    51.0  51.0  52.0  74.0  92.0  93.0  70.0 -19.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  51.0  53.0  53.0  48.0  43.0  41.0  34.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0 -10.0 -11.0   3.0   0.0  45.0-596.0  N  N  F  F  N  N VU VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       20.5%        8.3%       14.4%
 25kt / 24h       23.0%       24.7%       23.8%
 30kt / 24h       19.6%       14.7%       17.2%
 35kt / 24h       17.5%       14.7%       16.1%
 40kt / 24h        8.9%       14.7%       11.8%
 45kt / 36h        8.0%        5.3%        6.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.3%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%