Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP252021 211027 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.80    139.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     66.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     32.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.8  26.8  23.6  27.7  47.7  77.3  69.7  86.6  U  N  N  N VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   40.0  40.0  38.0  25.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         95.0  95.0  87.3  66.6  56.0  28.2  -1.6 -18.9  N  N  N  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    52.0  60.0  57.0  74.0  94.0  55.0  53.0  19.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  47.0  51.0  52.0  47.0  49.0  41.0  40.0 VU VU  U  U VU  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   7.0  -4.0  -1.0  -6.0 -70.0-156.0-630.0  N  N  F  N  F VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       21.7%       10.6%       16.2%
 25kt / 24h       26.4%       28.5%       27.4%
 30kt / 24h       19.6%       20.5%       20.1%
 35kt / 24h       19.6%       20.5%       20.1%
 40kt / 24h        9.3%       20.0%       14.7%
 45kt / 36h        3.9%        5.2%        4.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.5%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%