Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP252021 211028 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.80    141.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     66.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     38.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.4  38.9  53.3  70.9  81.0 105.3 117.6 113.4  N  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0   5.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         48.0  44.4  36.1  23.0  -5.8 -38.2 -42.9 -42.6  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    67.0  53.0 106.0 100.0  50.0  36.0  37.0 -17.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  49.0  50.0  50.0  51.0  48.0  35.0  35.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   2.0 -12.0 -52.0-204.0-186.0  -9.0-106.0  N  N  F VF VF VF  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.5%        2.0%        4.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        0.6%        0.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons