Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP262021 211026 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.00    109.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     69.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     59.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.0  16.1  15.7  16.8  12.2  12.0  17.5  20.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         59.7  67.0  96.0 112.4  99.4  83.6  88.0  83.6  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    22.0  27.0  27.0  17.0  22.0   6.0 -10.0 -29.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  64.0  61.0  65.0  66.0  63.0  63.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   4.0   6.0   9.0   6.0   2.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        3.4%        2.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.4%        0.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%       16.1%        8.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        7.8%        3.9%
 55kt / 48h        4.9%        4.9%        4.9%
 70kt / 48h        4.9%        4.5%        4.7%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        4.1%        2.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons