Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP262021 211027 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.20    109.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     85.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     69.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.7  18.6  17.9  20.2  15.0  11.7  11.3  11.3  N  N  F  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  51.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Potential [kt]         69.8 101.0 121.5 127.9 111.6  91.5 140.0 140.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     4.0  -5.0   4.0  -3.0 -20.0 -25.0 -14.0 -14.0  U  U  U  U VU VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  63.0  67.0  66.0  63.0  59.0  58.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0  10.0   9.0   8.0   7.0   3.0  -1.0  -1.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        2.0%        1.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        7.7%        3.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.0%        1.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.4%        0.3%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.3%        2.0%        1.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.8%        7.4%        4.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons