Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP262021 211027 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.50    108.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     58.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     21.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.8  18.8  21.0  20.8  13.7  11.1  11.1  11.1  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         63.7  65.7  55.8  48.4  48.4  57.4  57.4  57.4  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -5.0   4.0  -3.0 -27.0   3.0 -29.0 -29.0 -29.0  U  U  U VU  U VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  68.0  67.0  66.0  62.0  58.0  58.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0   9.0   8.0   7.0   5.0   2.0   2.0   2.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons