Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP262021 211027 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.80    107.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      4.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.8  19.3  18.3  16.1   9.7  11.6  14.4  16.0  F  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  36.0  26.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         70.7  59.2  53.4  51.4  60.0  77.0 145.0 132.9  U  U  U  U  U  U  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     4.0   0.0  -9.0   2.0 -24.0  -3.0   8.0   5.0  U  U  U  U VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  63.0  62.0  61.0  61.0  59.0  57.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   3.0   0.0   2.0   0.0  -2.0  -4.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        0.9%        0.5%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons