Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP272021 211129 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.60    140.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     92.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     83.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    140.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.0  19.2  22.0  24.3  21.7  13.2  12.7  13.1  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  115.0 113.0 110.0 112.0 115.0 117.0 117.0 112.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    91.0 100.0  95.0  84.0  94.0  84.0 116.0 114.0  F  F  F  N  F  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  74.0  73.0  72.0  74.0  78.0  74.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -4.0  -5.0  -4.0  -1.0   0.0   3.0   3.0  N  F  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       13.8%       22.7%       18.3%
 25kt / 24h       64.7%       78.0%       71.3%
 30kt / 24h       37.4%       64.6%       51.0%
 35kt / 24h       28.2%       64.6%       46.4%
 40kt / 24h        7.6%       61.7%       34.6%
 45kt / 36h       51.4%       85.6%       68.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       74.4%       37.2%
 55kt / 48h       56.2%       56.2%       56.2%
 70kt / 48h       56.2%       76.7%       66.4%
 65kt / 72h       61.9%       93.0%       77.5%