Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP272021 211130 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.80    139.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     89.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     63.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    138.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.1  20.3  21.4  24.4  19.1  20.5  34.2  40.7  F  N  N  N  N  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   89.0 102.0 109.0 108.0 103.0 112.0  96.0  19.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 113.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    90.0  98.0  88.0 111.0  72.0  41.0  41.0  16.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  72.0  73.0  74.0  80.0  81.0  73.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   3.0   1.0   1.0  -2.0  -1.0  -4.0 -10.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.5%       12.0%        8.7%
 25kt / 24h       48.8%       66.0%       57.4%
 30kt / 24h       21.1%       48.3%       34.7%
 35kt / 24h       14.7%       47.9%       31.3%
 40kt / 24h        2.6%       45.1%       23.9%
 45kt / 36h       36.4%       74.2%       55.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       55.4%       27.7%
 55kt / 48h       51.2%       59.4%       55.3%
 70kt / 48h       24.8%       51.9%       38.3%
 65kt / 72h       58.8%       56.0%       57.4%