Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP272021 211130 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.90    137.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     80.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     67.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    142.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.8  17.4  16.8  13.1  18.9  28.5  40.7  53.6  N  F  F  F  N  N VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  126.0 124.0 115.0 107.0 105.0 108.0  76.0  17.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 124.3 108.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    91.0 103.0  83.0  63.0  73.0  36.0  32.0  49.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  76.0  80.0  81.0  71.0  57.0  43.0  43.0  N  F  F  F  N  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -4.0   0.0   4.0   4.0  24.0  17.0  N  N  F  N  N  N VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.8%       13.2%       11.5%
 25kt / 24h       58.2%       71.6%       64.9%
 30kt / 24h       33.1%       56.7%       44.9%
 35kt / 24h       23.9%       56.0%       40.0%
 40kt / 24h        5.5%       54.0%       29.8%
 45kt / 36h       48.4%       76.6%       62.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       59.5%       29.8%
 55kt / 48h       51.6%       58.9%       55.3%
 70kt / 48h       25.5%       47.2%       36.4%
 65kt / 72h       60.9%       32.4%       46.6%