Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP272021 211201 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.80    136.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     98.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     92.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    149.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.3  13.1  18.2  20.0  29.6  40.2  54.1  51.4  F  F  F  N  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  114.0 107.0 106.0 110.0 104.0  50.0  12.0   5.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0  99.6  82.4  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    82.0  63.0  76.0  73.0  36.0  32.0  48.0  34.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  78.0  78.0  76.0  69.0  55.0  47.0  38.0  N  F  F  F  N  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0   0.0   4.0   3.0   3.0  23.0  14.0  -2.0  F  N  N  N  N VU  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       77.7%       68.0%       72.8%
 25kt / 24h       95.1%       92.9%       94.0%
 30kt / 24h       95.1%       92.7%       93.9%
 35kt / 24h       95.1%       92.7%       93.9%
 40kt / 24h       53.6%       91.6%       72.6%
 45kt / 36h       82.5%       87.9%       85.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       80.6%       40.3%
 55kt / 48h       51.1%       56.8%       54.0%
 70kt / 48h       24.8%       40.4%       32.6%
 65kt / 72h       10.4%        7.9%        9.2%