Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP272021 211201 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.20    135.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     99.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     88.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    139.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.5  26.5  31.8  35.6  37.9  57.0  63.8  74.7  N  N  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  107.0 108.0 105.0  89.0  37.0  10.0   6.0   7.0  F  F  F  F  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0  90.1  77.4  71.6  71.6  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    75.0  71.0  70.0  44.0  43.0  53.0   1.0  25.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  76.0  68.0  61.0  49.0  44.0  37.0  31.0  F  F  N  N  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   5.0   9.0   7.0  20.0   8.0 -19.0 -40.0  N  N  U  N VU  U VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       34.7%       29.3%       32.0%
 25kt / 24h       58.6%       62.8%       60.7%
 30kt / 24h       42.1%       55.4%       48.8%
 35kt / 24h       42.1%       55.4%       48.8%
 40kt / 24h       11.7%       51.7%       31.7%
 45kt / 36h       27.4%       27.8%       27.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       11.4%        5.7%
 55kt / 48h        5.7%        5.3%        5.5%
 70kt / 48h        1.1%        1.2%        1.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%