Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP272021 211201 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.00    135.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     97.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     93.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    144.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.4  32.8  37.2  41.2  50.3  64.6  61.7  74.6  N  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  109.0 105.0  92.0  75.0  41.0  25.0  27.0  29.0  F  F  F  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         95.0  95.0  95.0  87.3  68.5  52.7  56.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    71.0  70.0  44.0  55.0  25.0   1.0  11.0   9.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  69.0  58.0  54.0  49.0  43.0  36.0  35.0  F  N  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   8.0   5.0   6.0  -2.0   7.0 -22.0 -39.0  N  U  N  N  N  N VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       58.6%       33.4%       46.0%
 25kt / 24h       57.9%       56.2%       57.1%
 30kt / 24h       52.9%       48.6%       50.8%
 35kt / 24h       52.9%       48.6%       50.8%
 40kt / 24h       14.5%       45.0%       29.8%
 45kt / 36h       16.2%       14.6%       15.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.9%        2.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.4%        1.0%        0.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%