Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP272021 211202 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.50    135.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     95.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     89.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    137.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.4  49.0  43.7  50.1  59.4  55.7  61.3  53.6  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  101.0  81.0  55.0  22.0   8.0   5.0  10.0  26.0  F  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         85.0  85.0  84.3  70.7  56.6  53.0  58.5  77.3  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   100.0  49.0  54.0  79.0  31.0  22.0  55.0  54.0  F  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  58.0  51.0  45.0  37.0  35.0  36.0  36.0  N  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  11.0   7.0  20.0  13.0  16.0  10.0 -12.0 -14.0  U  N VU  U  U  U  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       65.5%       24.9%       45.2%
 25kt / 24h       45.2%       33.4%       39.3%
 30kt / 24h       39.5%       24.8%       32.1%
 35kt / 24h       39.5%       24.8%       32.1%
 40kt / 24h       13.7%       22.4%       18.0%
 45kt / 36h        7.5%        4.6%        6.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.1%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%