Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP272021 211202 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.20    136.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     99.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     98.00            VF
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        41.8  50.5  49.9  61.0  65.9  47.8  49.4  46.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   63.0  23.0   9.0   2.0  30.0  57.0  36.0  56.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  U  N
 Potential [kt]         64.3  50.7  38.5  29.4  46.5  52.9  57.3  65.0  U  U  U VU  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    80.0  74.0  49.0  40.0  38.0  25.0  21.0 -12.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  47.0  41.0  35.0  27.0  26.0  31.0  34.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  24.0  12.0   2.0 -12.0  -4.0 -17.0 -13.0 -11.0 VU  U  N  F  F VF VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       38.0%        5.8%       21.9%
 25kt / 24h        4.6%        2.8%        3.7%
 30kt / 24h        3.7%        1.2%        2.5%
 35kt / 24h        3.7%        1.2%        2.5%
 40kt / 24h        1.3%        1.0%        1.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%