Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP272021 211202 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.50    137.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    30.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]    100.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]    100.00            VF
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        54.6  63.3  59.4  63.6  57.5  49.5  48.4  64.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0   1.0   2.0  20.0  16.0   9.0  59.0   9.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Potential [kt]         21.5   4.4   4.4  15.5  -0.7   9.8  27.9  13.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    64.0  44.0   3.0 -14.0  23.0  62.0  16.0   6.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  40.0  35.0  33.0  25.0  33.0  35.0  32.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  25.0   1.0  14.0  17.0  -4.0  -1.0  -6.0  -2.0 VU  N  U  U  F  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons