Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP272021 211203 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.90    138.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]    100.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     98.00            VF
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    127.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        60.1  60.2  67.0  68.6  60.1  48.9  51.9  61.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    4.0   3.0   9.0  31.0  53.0  46.0  25.0  20.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]          9.8   4.4  13.5  19.4  19.4  27.9  27.9  27.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    44.0   4.0 -13.0  30.0  58.0  55.0   0.0  16.0  N  U  U  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   41.0  34.0  33.0  28.0  24.0  30.0  31.0  36.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0  13.0  12.0   4.0 -14.0 -12.0 -14.0   1.0  N  U  U  N VF  F VF  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons