Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP272021 211203 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.60    140.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     99.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     93.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        64.8  63.5  60.7  58.2  62.5  61.5  71.9  74.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  18.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   5.0  30.0  27.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]          6.2   8.0  -5.4  -3.9   1.0  -2.3  13.5   2.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -8.0 -10.0  -2.0   7.0  44.0  11.0  -6.0  41.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   39.0  34.0  29.0  27.0  31.0  32.0  34.0  41.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  12.0   8.0  -7.0  -6.0  -5.0  -9.0   6.0  F  U  U  F  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons