Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP272021 211203 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.80    142.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     50.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     35.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        62.4  57.2  56.1  57.4  71.9  87.0  96.3  96.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         14.3  11.1   5.0 -15.2 -24.1 -27.6 -35.3 -39.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    22.0   0.0   6.0  40.0  22.0  10.0  43.0  62.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   40.0  31.0  27.0  24.0  32.0  42.0  52.0  54.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  29.0   5.0   5.0  21.0  -6.0  23.0  71.0  43.0 VU  N  N VU  F VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons