Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP272021 211204 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.20    146.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -65.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      4.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        78.3  83.0  78.4  86.5 105.6 118.0 112.2  95.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         48.8  39.1  34.2  31.2  22.3   8.4   6.8   3.6  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -6.0   7.0   6.0  16.0 -59.0 -34.0   0.0 -62.0  U  U  U  U VU VU  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   29.0  27.0  26.0  28.0  36.0  35.0  32.0  36.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -43.0 -32.0 -59.0-110.0 -94.0 -60.0 -62.0 -89.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons