Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP282021 211213 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :      5.20    141.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     65.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     49.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.6  27.7  33.2  35.1  32.3  31.4  30.7  37.5  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  111.0 103.0  96.0  95.0  87.0  81.0  82.0  82.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   109.0 110.0 108.0  86.0 120.0  91.0  27.0  29.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  76.0  76.0  76.0  78.0  83.0  79.0  79.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   3.0   5.0   7.0  12.0   6.0   2.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.2%        9.1%        8.1%
 25kt / 24h       38.9%       49.6%       44.2%
 30kt / 24h       16.1%       26.2%       21.2%
 35kt / 24h        5.8%       24.1%       15.0%
 40kt / 24h        4.6%       23.6%       14.1%
 45kt / 36h       24.0%       55.4%       39.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       28.4%       14.2%
 55kt / 48h       39.8%       29.2%       34.5%
 70kt / 48h       24.8%       24.0%       24.4%
 65kt / 72h       52.5%       41.1%       46.8%