Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP282021 211213 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :      6.00    139.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     73.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     55.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.4  35.4  40.3  35.5  26.9  25.9  33.2  39.7  N  U  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   64.0  57.0  55.0  55.0  63.0  53.0  57.0  77.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   135.0 106.0  84.0 105.0  93.0  91.0  49.0  54.0 VF  F  N  F  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  77.0  78.0  78.0  78.0  81.0  78.0  78.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   5.0   8.0   6.0   7.0   5.0   6.0  14.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.7%        4.8%        4.8%
 25kt / 24h       22.0%       31.5%       26.8%
 30kt / 24h        8.0%       13.9%       10.9%
 35kt / 24h        3.4%       13.7%        8.5%
 40kt / 24h        2.2%       13.0%        7.6%
 45kt / 36h       11.0%       35.7%       23.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       14.3%        7.1%
 55kt / 48h       16.3%       17.6%       17.0%
 70kt / 48h        6.0%       11.3%        8.6%
 65kt / 72h       17.2%       18.8%       18.0%