Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP282021 211213 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :      6.80    138.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     94.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     93.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.2  39.9  36.2  32.6  27.6  26.9  41.9  38.0  U  U  U  U  N  N VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   95.0  94.0  88.0  83.0  81.0  82.0  81.0  47.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  93.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   106.0  83.0 105.0  75.0  91.0  66.0  37.0  62.0  F  N  F  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  73.0  74.0  74.0  73.0  70.0  71.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   8.0   6.0  10.0   6.0   2.0  20.0  15.0  N  U  N  U  N  N VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       18.7%       12.2%       15.4%
 25kt / 24h       52.6%       55.5%       54.0%
 30kt / 24h       26.3%       37.1%       31.7%
 35kt / 24h       20.6%       37.1%       28.8%
 40kt / 24h       10.0%       34.0%       22.0%
 45kt / 36h       33.3%       58.6%       45.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       34.1%       17.1%
 55kt / 48h       38.5%       33.9%       36.2%
 70kt / 48h       20.1%       23.9%       22.0%
 65kt / 72h       28.6%       20.6%       24.6%