Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP282021 211214 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :      7.40    136.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     99.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     97.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.8  31.4  31.4  25.3  29.7  36.3  40.4  41.6  N  U  U  N  N  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   54.0  60.0  63.0  57.0  58.0  85.0  46.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  84.8  79.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   166.0 108.0  94.0  77.0  65.0  58.0  66.0  80.0 VF  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  70.0  71.0  73.0  71.0  73.0  69.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   9.0  12.0  11.0   6.0  12.0  18.0  17.0  N  U  U  U  N  U VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       25.7%       17.1%       21.4%
 25kt / 24h       61.2%       66.7%       63.9%
 30kt / 24h       35.0%       55.3%       45.1%
 35kt / 24h       30.4%       55.3%       42.8%
 40kt / 24h       17.7%       51.5%       34.6%
 45kt / 36h       33.8%       60.0%       46.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       37.6%       18.8%
 55kt / 48h       25.7%       29.1%       27.4%
 70kt / 48h        7.6%       16.0%       11.8%
 65kt / 72h        6.6%        7.7%        7.2%