Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP282021 211214 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :      7.60    135.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     84.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     53.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.3  31.0  26.2  29.6  32.8  41.1  38.7  42.2  U  U  N  N  U VU  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   81.0  81.0  82.0  85.0  82.0  57.0  35.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  83.5  76.2  97.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   108.0  94.0  77.0  56.0  59.0  65.0  78.0  91.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  71.0  73.0  72.0  70.0  70.0  69.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0  10.0  10.0   8.0   9.0  18.0  14.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  U VU  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       16.2%       12.0%       14.1%
 25kt / 24h       53.0%       55.3%       54.1%
 30kt / 24h       30.5%       40.7%       35.6%
 35kt / 24h       21.1%       40.7%       30.9%
 40kt / 24h       13.2%       38.4%       25.8%
 45kt / 36h       28.5%       40.1%       34.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       18.4%        9.2%
 55kt / 48h       16.0%       14.3%       15.1%
 70kt / 48h        7.7%        5.4%        6.5%
 65kt / 72h        9.2%        3.6%        6.4%