Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP282021 211214 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :      8.50    134.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     86.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     78.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.1  28.1  26.9  27.8  36.0  41.1  42.5  47.2  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   64.0  58.0  54.0  62.0  88.0  37.0  39.0  20.0  N  N  N  N  F  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  76.2  83.5 100.1  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    98.0 101.0  96.0  65.0 106.0  52.0  66.0  83.0  F  F  F  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  78.0  77.0  76.0  75.0  71.0  71.0  68.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  16.0  15.0   8.0  10.0  16.0  27.0  12.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  U VU  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.5%        7.6%        9.0%
 25kt / 24h       34.0%       42.4%       38.2%
 30kt / 24h       16.7%       29.2%       23.0%
 35kt / 24h        9.9%       29.2%       19.6%
 40kt / 24h        9.5%       27.2%       18.3%
 45kt / 36h       20.2%       27.1%       23.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       10.2%        5.1%
 55kt / 48h        9.4%        8.1%        8.7%
 70kt / 48h        1.9%        2.2%        2.1%
 65kt / 72h        1.8%        1.5%        1.6%