Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP282021 211214 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :      8.80    133.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     84.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     75.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.1  26.9  26.2  28.9  35.4  42.0  48.6  45.0  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   82.0  85.0  88.0  87.0  58.0  28.0  51.0  70.0  N  N  F  N  N  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0  84.4  62.7  99.6 105.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   101.0  96.0  66.0  86.0  49.0  70.0  81.0  78.0  F  F  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  76.0  75.0  75.0  74.0  70.0  68.0  64.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  16.0   9.0  11.0  12.0  13.0  15.0   9.0  13.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       15.4%       11.4%       13.4%
 25kt / 24h       46.9%       50.3%       48.6%
 30kt / 24h       26.5%       37.8%       32.1%
 35kt / 24h       19.5%       37.8%       28.6%
 40kt / 24h       19.5%       35.5%       27.5%
 45kt / 36h       22.0%       22.8%       22.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        8.1%        4.1%
 55kt / 48h        7.8%        4.5%        6.1%
 70kt / 48h        2.5%        1.3%        1.9%
 65kt / 72h        4.1%        1.4%        2.7%