Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP282021 211215 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.10    131.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     95.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     81.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.7  22.0  31.3  38.7  35.0  40.4  35.4  39.3  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   87.0  84.0  66.0  38.0  42.0  52.0  67.0  43.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         95.0  95.0  80.7  61.2  66.6  87.3  95.0  87.3  N  N  N  U  U  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    48.0  25.0  31.0  48.0  52.0  72.0  67.0  56.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  74.0  73.0  69.0  65.0  63.0  60.0  60.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   3.0   3.0  11.0   3.0   1.0   1.0  -2.0  U  N  N  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       52.3%       33.1%       42.7%
 25kt / 24h       39.5%       42.4%       40.9%
 30kt / 24h       28.6%       35.6%       32.1%
 35kt / 24h       25.0%       35.6%       30.3%
 40kt / 24h       19.0%       32.5%       25.7%
 45kt / 36h        9.7%       12.9%       11.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.8%        2.4%
 55kt / 48h        3.7%        3.3%        3.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        1.4%        1.7%        1.5%