Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP282021 211215 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.40    128.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    40.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     99.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     98.00            VF
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.8  34.4  37.3  37.4  40.4  31.2  29.4  30.2  N  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   79.0  46.0  37.0  39.0  54.0  72.0  51.0  31.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]         50.0  16.2  19.8  21.6  44.6  50.0  47.0  33.6  U VU VU VU  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   123.0 119.0  87.0  91.0 107.0 102.0  78.0  67.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  71.0  70.0  70.0  67.0  67.0  65.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   3.0   1.0  -2.0   0.0   3.0  12.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       51.7%       10.9%       31.3%
 25kt / 24h       16.5%        7.4%       12.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%