Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP282021 211216 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.90    126.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   130.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   130.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]    100.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     99.00            VF
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.1  33.8  35.8  38.8  29.2  27.2  36.7  33.7  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   38.0  32.0  53.0  52.0  72.0  50.0  12.0   0.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]          1.2  -4.0  22.9  27.3  35.0  27.3   6.6 -15.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    38.0  44.0  67.0  79.0  81.0  48.0  27.0  27.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  64.0  67.0  67.0  63.0  62.0  57.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   4.0   2.0   3.0   1.0  10.0  22.0  18.0  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons