Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP282021 211216 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.20    122.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     79.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     55.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.6  34.8  33.5  27.2  30.0  35.1  36.9  36.8  U  U  U  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   54.0  49.0  61.0  70.0  40.0  12.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         45.1  45.1  55.0  55.0  47.3  19.4  -2.0  -4.6  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    67.0  74.0  66.0  52.0  29.0   3.0  30.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  61.0  57.0  55.0  56.0  54.0  56.0  56.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   2.0   1.0   9.0  27.0  33.0  24.0  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%