Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP282021 211217 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.70    117.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]    100.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     99.00            VF
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.9  28.3  35.6  34.5  41.9  42.3  44.1  38.6  N  N  U  U VU VU VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   64.0  50.0  41.0  17.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         65.0  65.0  62.0  38.5  12.2   9.4  10.8   6.7  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    53.0  30.0  -6.0 -29.0  15.0   4.0 -11.0 -20.0  N  N  U VU  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  63.0  62.0  64.0  68.0  69.0  73.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0  14.0  29.0  40.0  54.0  34.0  30.0  18.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       18.5%        8.5%       13.5%
 25kt / 24h        6.9%        8.9%        7.9%
 30kt / 24h        5.6%        5.8%        5.7%
 35kt / 24h        4.5%        5.8%        5.1%
 40kt / 24h        3.0%        5.0%        4.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%