Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP282021 211219 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.10    111.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     86.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     62.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        40.3  41.5  42.1  43.0  43.5  32.6  41.1  45.3  U VU VU VU VU  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        -11.4 -15.6 -15.6 -15.6 -18.3 -31.2 -22.1 -15.6 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    13.0  -9.0   4.0 -11.0 -11.0  13.0  21.0   5.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  73.0  78.0  76.0  74.0  72.0  62.0  59.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  34.0  31.0  28.0  37.0  35.0  13.0  -9.0   2.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons