Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP282021 211219 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.00    110.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     75.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     52.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        40.8  40.0  40.4  41.0  42.7  42.4  61.9  80.6 VU  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        -10.6  -9.2 -12.0 -18.3 -40.0 -47.9 -17.1 -30.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    12.0  14.0   7.0   2.0 -12.0  17.0   2.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  74.0  76.0  73.0  67.0  63.0  57.0  50.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  34.0  24.0  38.0  32.0  23.0  -4.0  26.0  -1.0 VU VU VU VU VU  F VU  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons