Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP282021 211219 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.00    110.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -25.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     19.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.9  42.9  42.8  38.8  41.7  51.5  52.9  61.8  U VU VU  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         18.0  19.4  16.7   2.7  -5.9   3.8  -8.4  20.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    44.0  33.0  19.0  10.0  16.0   5.0  -4.0 -36.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  73.0  72.0  70.0  60.0  57.0  57.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  36.0  36.0  38.0  26.0  15.0  18.0  -7.0 -20.0 VU VU VU VU  U VU  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons