Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP282021 211220 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.80    112.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -45.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     70.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        42.2  38.1  37.3  42.7  52.5  79.4 101.9 115.4 VU  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         79.2  69.8  68.8  68.8  74.3  62.8  28.2  41.7  N  U  U  U  U  U VU  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -2.0  14.0   1.0  14.0   6.0  12.0  -5.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  63.0  61.0  53.0  51.0  52.0  55.0  52.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  41.0  23.0   8.0  -5.0 -11.0 -15.0  19.0  24.0 VU VU  U  F  F VF VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons