Rapid Intensification Guidance AL012022 220604 12UTC Storm Located at : 26.10 82.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 7.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 15.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 6.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 2.90 F TC SIZE [%] 100.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 39.4 48.9 49.1 42.9 54.7 53.5 56.4 58.5 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 4.0 3.0 5.0 6.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 111.5 109.4 101.6 99.8 77.2 54.7 46.6 37.7 N N N N U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 62.0 81.0 71.0 82.0 99.0 78.0 29.0 -35.0 N N N N F N N VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 62.0 62.0 63.0 63.0 59.0 50.0 45.0 N N N N N U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 19.0 18.0 11.0 20.0 16.0 -15.0 -39.0 -79.0 VU VU U VU U VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.34 AL012022 220604 12UTC Storm Located at : 26.10 82.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.