Rapid Intensification Guidance AL012022 220606 06UTC Storm Located at : 33.00 68.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 5.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 2.40 F TC SIZE [%] 104.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 43.1 48.1 51.5 58.2 69.8 69.8 69.8 69.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 28.7 19.2 13.4 11.4 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 18.0 47.0 50.0 40.0 44.0 44.0 44.0 44.0 U N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 58.0 53.0 48.0 47.0 42.0 42.0 42.0 42.0 U U U VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 -4.0 5.0 -10.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 N F N F N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 22.64 AL012022 220606 06UTC Storm Located at : 33.00 68.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60.