Rapid Intensification Guidance AL012022 220606 18UTC Storm Located at : 34.70 62.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.70 F TC SIZE [%] 106.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 56.4 63.6 73.2 73.6 70.9 70.9 70.9 70.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 26.2 26.2 19.6 8.9 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 2.0 48.0 61.0 40.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 U N N N U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 48.0 50.0 49.0 42.0 34.0 34.0 34.0 34.0 U U U VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 14.0 -12.0 5.0 -50.0 -59.0 -59.0 -59.0 -59.0 U F N VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 21.46 AL012022 220606 18UTC Storm Located at : 34.70 62.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50.