Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL022022 220628 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :      8.50     52.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     20.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.7  11.4  10.3  13.9  16.3  18.5  13.6  13.5  F  F  F  F  F  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   27.0  24.0  27.0  19.0   2.0   5.0  12.0  16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.7 113.6 113.6 115.7 103.5 111.5 117.9 130.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    90.0 113.0 123.0 120.0  72.0  35.0  21.0  35.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  67.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -5.0  -2.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0  -7.0  -2.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.6%        2.3%        1.9%
 25kt / 24h        9.9%       21.5%       15.7%
 30kt / 24h        4.6%        9.4%        7.0%
 35kt / 24h        2.9%        9.1%        6.0%
 40kt / 24h        2.9%        9.1%        6.0%
 45kt / 36h        9.8%       27.8%       18.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       11.8%        5.9%
 55kt / 48h       14.9%       14.9%       14.9%
 70kt / 48h       14.9%        9.6%       12.3%
 65kt / 72h       18.4%       21.2%       19.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.80

 AL022022 220628 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :      8.50     52.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.7  11.4  10.3  13.9  16.3  18.5  13.6  13.5  N  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  67.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -5.0  -2.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0  -7.0  -2.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%