Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL022022 220628 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.60     56.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     61.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     39.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.1  11.4  14.6  17.5   9.8  16.2  10.1  13.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   32.0  11.0   7.0   3.0   5.0   8.0  19.0  17.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        113.6 113.6 107.4 105.5 117.9 122.3 130.0 130.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    72.0 109.0  82.0  95.0  63.0  44.0  66.0  85.0  N  F  N  F  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  67.0  68.0  66.0  66.0  67.0  68.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   4.0   3.0  -1.0   3.0  -5.0  -1.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        2.7%        1.8%
 25kt / 24h        5.7%       17.8%       11.8%
 30kt / 24h        1.6%        8.5%        5.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.9%        7.5%        4.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%        7.5%        4.2%
 45kt / 36h        4.7%       29.0%       16.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       13.5%        6.8%
 55kt / 48h       13.6%       12.9%       13.2%
 70kt / 48h        7.8%       11.9%        9.9%
 65kt / 72h       21.3%       30.3%       25.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.56

 AL022022 220628 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.60     56.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.1  11.4  14.6  17.5   9.8  16.2  10.1  13.6  U  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  67.0  68.0  66.0  66.0  67.0  68.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   4.0   3.0  -1.0   3.0  -5.0  -1.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%