Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL022022 220628 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.00     58.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     61.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.7  15.4  19.6  20.3  13.2  13.8  20.3  13.3  F  F  N  N  F  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0   8.0   3.0   3.0   7.0   9.0  23.0  23.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        113.6 109.4 105.5 109.4 120.1 124.6 130.0 130.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    72.0 108.0  76.0  67.0  48.0   6.0  47.0  20.0  N  F  N  N  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  69.0  66.0  66.0  70.0  72.0  76.0  75.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   6.0   5.0   2.0   0.0   4.0   0.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        2.2%        1.4%
 25kt / 24h        3.9%       13.3%        8.6%
 30kt / 24h        1.0%        6.1%        3.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        5.3%        2.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        5.3%        2.7%
 45kt / 36h        2.7%       22.3%       12.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        9.6%        4.8%
 55kt / 48h        7.9%       10.0%        9.0%
 70kt / 48h        4.1%        8.1%        6.1%
 65kt / 72h        7.8%       18.3%       13.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.54

 AL022022 220628 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.00     58.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.7  15.4  19.6  20.3  13.2  13.8  20.3  13.3  U  U  N  N  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  69.0  66.0  66.0  70.0  72.0  76.0  75.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   6.0   5.0   2.0   0.0   4.0   0.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%